Thanks @LordAshcroft on Twitter we get a small sample (below) of how voting Ukip means you get Labour. This means, thanks to Ukip, there is a strong chance we will have Ed Miliband as Prime Minister, a return to entrenched welfarism, god alone knows how much state spending - and no EU referendum.
This is not to say the Tories present us anything even approaching mediocre but in my estimations, it beats shooting ourselves in the foot. Kippers put it to me that the Tory referendum won't be a fair fight. They also put it to me that we can't win a referendum unless the government is in favour of leaving. Putting it in terms a kipper can understand: There is never going to be a free and fair referendum. No incumbent government is ever going to favour leaving the EU. Ukip is never going win power either. So you have one choice: take the referendum and fight it for all it's worth... or don't.