Tuesday, 17 March 2015

Carswell is out on his own


Here we find a very recent interview with Douglas Carswell where we see he has gone full Kipper. What is clear is how irreconcilable his politics are with that of Nigel Farage's foghorn politics. The poor chap is left standing naked having to evade questions on what Farage has said, flatly contradicting him saying "we'll wait and see what's in the manifesto" - which is not yet published. So Carswell doesn't actually know what Ukip policy is on anything, apart from "probably not what Nigel said".

Further to this Carswell makes the case that Ukip does deal with racists, but while disowning the recent comments of David Coburn refuses to say whether he should be sacked. There is a double standard there just waiting to be pounced on by the media.

What we do get from Carswell is an unequivocal statement that he does not seek the leadership of Ukip. Taking him at his word, this spells death for Ukip. Ukip cannot survive Farage, who is increasingly out of control, increasingly controversial and jumping every shark along the way. If a manifesto ever is produced the gulf between what is says and what Farage has said will be irreconcilable. Consequently Farage will gradually ruin any chance Ukip has of broadening their appeal and their lack of success after the election will see the party slowly fade back to the margins.

Ukip is now a household name but the only way it can stay in the mainstream is to win the arguments. But it can't. The Ukip party line on the EU is one that will not hold up to scrutiny. It speaks well to the converted, who gorged themselves on a diet of EU regulation stories and how £Xbn can be saved by pulling out so we can spend it on nurses, but the truth is, leaving the EU is not the miracle cure Ukip thinks it is, and they would know that had they explored the Brexit options in any detail.

Carswell is making tired and very old arguments the opposition groups are already briefing against and because Ukip is so bogged down in its own dogma, it will not listen to anyone who knows better. On the one subject Ukip should be leading the field on, Carswell points to Business for Europe and Matthew Elliot who are both polluting the debate with misinformation.

The only consistency we get form Carswell is "Australian points based immigrations system". It is a Ukip mantra the same as "long term economic plan" from the Tories. I don't think anyone in Ukip knows what that would actually entail or how much it would cost, and seems to imply that freedom of movement within Europe is out of the question - without realising just how damaging that would be.

If Ukip wants to win an EU referendum then it needs to make the case for leaving the EU, not the single market. That way it can sidestep debates it doesn't need to have. But by going the whole hog it needs to prove it has answers to very difficult questions and the kind of meme driven talking points we get from Ukip simply won't win. They have lost their credibility to such an extent that voters won't trust Ukip over the torrent of FUD stories.

If Carswell hasn't understood this much then it's a dead cert nobody else in the top ranks of Ukip has. The only person even remotely aware of the wider issues at play is Diane James who has seemingly been sidelined by Farage. Consequently, Ukip is a closed circle from top to bottom, cocksure in it's own ignorance and no message of sanity will get through.

Carswell proves that Ukip is a shambolic mess even divorced from the EU issue and that he can't show his face in public without having to mop up after Farage's boneheaded shenanigans. Ukip can't keep their dog on a leash. Meanwhile, as predicted, prominent Kipper activists are turning into the Kipper version of cycbernats, clocking up a reputation for being ogrish and singularly obnoxious. Ukip is cooking up a recipe for failure and I simply don't see a future for Ukip now.

What's worse is because Ukip is on track to win possibly three MPs, they can't see the rot thus can't even begin to address it. They mistake Farage's continued publicity as continued success for the party. But sooner or later it will have to reckon with the fact it is losing the arguments and that their house is built on sand and the supports are waterlogged and rotten.

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