I just have to park this here from 20th March 1015 for my own amusement.
“Prof Goodwin said: “My view is that UKIP is likely to win six
Parliamentary constituencies. They have pretty much got three or four
seats now in the bag unless there is a monumental mistake and a car
crash before May 7.”
Interesting he says "unless there is a monumental mistake". Yet the day before we saw this. The professor clearly has a different definition of "monumental mistake" to the rest of us. My own estimations of Ukip's chances are best summed up here.